Thursday, July 20, 2017

Global warming confusion

One of the main problems with environmental science, global warming, and public figures like AlGore is a fundamental misunderstanding of the difference between applied and theoretical physics.

Put simply, theoretical physics -- the underpinning of global warming -- is best thought of as Dick Tracy, where applied physics is the iPhone.

Sure, Tracy may have been eventually proven right by Steve Jobs, but it was purely fictional until the first iPhone.

It was not fact.

When something is not a fact, it can be a theory based on fact, but that is still a fancy way of saying fiction.

The cold, hard truth is theoretical physicists are science fiction authors with PHDs. They don't like hearing that, and I don't like saying it, and AlGore refuses to believe it, but it is what it is. More theories will be proven wrong than proven right. String theory included. This is not to diminish their brilliance or their achievements, but merely to put it back into perspective. Because a theoretical physicist says it, that does not make it a fact any more than if it came out of a comic book.

Today, there are at least 4 different theories on quantum physics taught. People spend a fortune learning them, being tested on them, being graded on them... when the only fact we know for sure is that at least 3 of them are wrong. At least 3 out of 4 might as well be learning Hogwarts. Fiction. But because they pay money and take tests, it gives them the illusion delusion that what they are learning has value equal to the effort and price paid... when common sense says most will learn fiction, not fact.

The worst part for most of these graduates is not that they spent a fortune learning fiction (theory is fiction), but that along the way they lost critical thinking and common sense, something few ever get back.

The reality is that computer models are really video games with bad graphics, they are not facts and do not generate facts, nor should they be treated as such. They generate guesses. Nobody would turn an indie car over to the best driver of grand theft auto, nor should we give our economy over to a climate model. Sorry, that's just dumb.

Hawkings, as much as I respect the man and believe him to have a much higher than average odds of being right, he is still a fiction writer, no different than Hogwarts or Dick Tracy. It will take a Steve Jobs before his theories become facts.

Unfortunately, too many people like AlGore hear what they want to hear, and thus willfully confuse theory (fiction) with fact. It may be a fact that Hawkings said the world will end, but that doesn't mean the world will end. It just means he said it would.

Hawkings is by far the most famous science fiction author of our time, much as Einstein was in his. And like Einstein, much of what Hawkings predicts (theories/fiction) will likely be proven as facts... but until then, it is still fiction. And we, the people whose money they are spending, need to keep that fact in mind.

The only thing we really know as a fact is that theories are NOT facts, they are fiction. Theories. Nothing more. Computer models are not facts. They are guesses, as flawless and fallible as a Tesla autopilot that works perfectly until someone dies.

Applied physics is an iPhone, theoretical physics is Dick Tracy. Without a Steve Jobs, theoretical physicists are nothing more than science fiction authors with PHDs. We forget this reality at our peril, and the world is imperiled by theoretical physicists... that's a fact.